NASA not ready to resume shuttle flights.

The NY Times reports that an advisory group says that NASA still isn't yet ready to resume shuttle flights, and that they still don't know when they will be.


I like the "progress should not be mistaken for accomplishment" part. That's a nice phrase. :) Basically it would seem that political considerations are blocking any frank confrontation of the problems involved, or any real changes.

I can't believe that they're talking about still using the shuttles in 2010. By that time it'll be 40-year old technology, long obsolete, and almost certainly way behind that used by the Chinese, Indians, Russians and others. And the three remaining shuttles will be long past their planned lifespan, and frankly pretty dangerous. There are no plans at all to build any more.

It really illustrates just how much Bush's plan for going to the moon and Mars is just political, and not something that America has the technological ability to accomplish. At the moment the US is barely able to launch a satellite into space, much less a manned spacecraft.

The NY Times also prints another article, New Moon: Planning the Return to Space, which discusses NASA plans for Bush's new moon missions. They seem to be going backwards, and plan on using the same sort of basic capsules that the original Apollo missions used. Something also that ought to be quite obsolete by the time they get off the ground. But new designs have repeatedly failed to materialize.


Actually there are plenty of people in the world who could come up with effective new approaches. But the politicians at NASA won't listen to them, and especially won't consider using anything designed by people outside of America.

I also found that the Times has a special space section in their science area.






Moon and Mars costs don't include ongoing maintenance.

There's been a lot of discussion about Bush's proposal to establish colonies on the moon and Mars. One thing that hasn't been pointed out is that the initial estimates of the costs involved don't include the costs of keeping the bases going once they're established. The initial estimates of the total costs are something like $500 billion, but given the history of overruns in the space program, it will almost certainly end up being in the trillions.

Which itself is an almost inconceivable amount, and even more when you consider that since America is broke, it will have to borrow the money. I shudder to think what the interest charges on a one trillion dollar loan will be.

But this is just the costs of establishing the programs and planting the initial colonies. Once they're there they will have to be maintained, and presumably gradually expanded. That means at least tens or hundreds of billions of dollars a year, if not more. And those costs will never end since the suggestion is for permanent bases. I repeat that: the proposal is for permanent bases that will have to be supported for decades at least. And given Murphy's law ("whatever can go wrong will go wrong") there will almost certainly be enormous unforeseen expenses. If something does go wrong, and it will, we'll have to rescue those folks, no matter what the costs.

These are enormous projects, maybe even the biggest in human history. I'm a big fan of space exploration, and an even bigger fan of colonizing it, but I can see what it will cost. I think eventually it will not only pay for itself, but make a profit. From tourism if nothing else, along with unexpected scientific advances. (I can see the skeptics shaking their heads about that as I write. :)) But in the meantime we're talking potentially many trillions over the next few decades.

If we're going to do this we need to plan very, very carefully, and go very, very slowly. And if at all possible do it on an international basis so that Americans alone don't bear the entire burden. The Chinese are already planning on a permanent base on the moon. I'm sure they don't want to pay all of the costs.






Let's send Bush to the moon.

I made post yesterday about my thoughts on Bush's suggestion America prepare to spend trillions of dollars to go to the moon and Mars. As I said, I'm entirely in favor of colonizing space, I just don't think that America can afford to embark on such grandiose plans at the moment.

However, I would be more than willing to contribute to send Bush himself to the moon. Providing it was a guaranteed one-way trip. I'd even go so far as to say that I'd be willing to sell everything I own and give the money to get this man off the planet for good. It'd be more than worth it. :)






Bush promises the moon.

Reading about Bush's proposal for a bold new American drive to the moon and to Mars. I'm a big fan of space exploration and colonization, which I'm certain will happen during the 21st century in a big way. But this isn't a real plan. It's just an election-year ploy. What Bush proposes will be multi-trillion dollar projects. The money simply isn't there, and we all know it.

Americans will go the stars, but along with the rest of the world, and I have the feeling that it's the Chinese and Russians who will be leading the way, at least for the next few decades. And then some other nations will follow them, who knows who that will be.

I could be wrong, but I really don't see how a nation whose space shuttle fleet is still grounded can accomplish such great goals. From the private sector maybe, but not through the federal government. And even privately only in cooperation with other nations.

One of the great differences of the America of today from the America of JFK that went to the moon is the educational system. When Sputnik was launched in 1957 Americans realized it needed to keep its technological edge, and responded by pumping tons of money into its school systems, promoting the heck out of the study of mathematics and sciences of all types. It was all the rage then, and continued through the 1960s. But now its cutting funding for schools, not expanding them.

Another great difference, and probably the reason that the US was more successful than the Russians, at least in getting to the moon, was that the US was much more open. Information flowed freely, government agencies shared their research with the private sector, and vice versa. When mistakes were made the press freely reported them, and they were corrected. Unlike the USSR where mistakes were hushed over, and problems left to fester.

But now the trend in the US is to control the flow of information. Technology is classified, and hidden. And every day more so. Copyright laws make it very difficult to access other people's research. Corporations reserve their patents for themselves instead of sharing them. Libraries are monitored to make sure "dangerous" people aren't studying technologies which might be used to engage in so-called "terrorism." University research is focused on the short-term goal of producing products for corporations to sell, rather than on the long-term ones of studying science for knowledge sake. And worst of all, lawyers, accountants and politicians direct the programs, not the scientists and dreamers who know what they're doing. Witness what happend to the space shuttle Columbia. The scientists and engineers involved knew that there were problems. But the politicians in charge had to hide them in order to protect their butts.

No, this isn't a nation that is going to the stars. At least not under the likes of George Bush. The Mars rover is very impressive, and the pictures are fascinating. But it hasn't been paid for. The international space station has lost international support because nobody trusts the Americans who insist on doing everything their way and calling all of the shots. And the space shuttle fleet that was supposed to transport people and supplies there is grounded. At the moment the station is leaking air. Because the politicians running NASA chose to focus on all-American projects such as the Mars expeditions, rather than the more boring and mundane tasks of getting a basic station established. And wanted to pretend that they had unlimited money for all sorts of grandiose projects rather than accepting the limits of America's resources and finances and making some hard choices. It's too bad, because having a base in the international space station from which other expeditions could be launched or at least supported could have provided an essential first step in true space colonization.

The pictures of Mars are beautiful though. But I look at them though, and pray that Americans aren't able to get control of it all and fill up that empty landscape with fast-food franchises.






Picture of Mars.

There's a wonderful photo of the Martian landscape here. Absolutely beautiful. Or at least as beautiful as a landscape with no mountains or other landmarks could be. No McDonald's or Pizza Huts yet, but give them time.

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