February 09, 2005
On the proposed 2006 federal budget.
The indefatigable Mariali at the superb
Uncommon Thought has a
lengthy post overviewing Bush's proposed budget, including a link to the
official budget itself, which is over at the Office of Management and Budget site.
As to what I think about the federal budget? Two things. One, the need for the politicians in Congress to keep their pork barrels full in order to keep them in office, and the fact that they have to face re-election while Bush doesn't, will make it impossible for them to do any significant cutting. Two, the deficit is an enormous profit center for corporate America. The interest on the older debts already is like a trillion a year. They like deficits, they make money on them, money which in turn keeps them in office, and so they won't ever cut them. Period.
Both of which add up to the conclusion that they won't make any real dents in the budget deficit, which will probably be even greater next year than it is this year. I would imagine in the area of $600-800 billion when all is said and done. If you include the unbudgeted military expenses, which Bush doesn't think you should do, it could easily top a trillion.
And this is assuming that the dollar doesn't really collapse, the way so many people think it could. That could really change the picture, and would certainly greatly increase the deficit in the end. It also doesn't include the possibility of further serious attacks either on or by the American people, either inside or outside the US. If there are, and everyone hates America now, they could really hit the American economy.
Basically Bush and Congress are making the assumption that things will essentially continue on as they have, with the US in the dominant position in the world, the so-called "indispensable" nation. There will be no serious repercussions against the US for anything its done, no significant changes in the dollar, no boycotts or sanctions, no further expensive military misadventures, no major health care crisis or epidemic, no recessions, and that the Asians will continue to bail out the federal treasury even as their funds are being used to create arms destined to be used against them. In short: everything good will happen, and nothing really bad will.
We shall see.
