August 02, 2004
American media beginning to predict Democratic sweep.
In contrast to the skepticism of the international media (see previous
post), American observers are beginning to see the possibility of a Democratic sweep of not only the White House, but the Senate and House as well. At least that's the conclusion of a Time magazine
article on the subject, the first time I've seen a major media source acknowledge the possibility. They point out that the Democrats need only gain 11 seats to take the House, which isn't very much, only one out of three of the most heavily contested races.
But the landscape may have changed, giving the Democrats a shot at winning a Triple Crown of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. The third leg is still a steep climb, but hardly an impossible one. Instead of a perfect storm, House Minority Whip Steney Hoyer believes Democrats need only "a breeze." ...
Democrats see 33 seats across the country as competitive — far less than the 68 in play in 1994, but then the Dems only need a net gain of 11 to win back the House. That means winning one out of every three competitive races — easier, perhaps, than the one out of every 1.8 Gingrich's Republicans had to win in 1994.
They're being cautious, but even the corporates can see that there is a tide beginning to turn in America and it isn't moving to the right. Not by a long shot. I think there is a possibility of a Democratic sweep so strong that it could virtually eliminate the Republicans as a mainstream party. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they took a lot of the so-called "safe" seats as well.
I'd compare it to 1932 when FDR won so handily that the Republicans were forced into the political wilderness for a full generation. Except this time they just may not make it back. The things they're doing now will not be forgotten very soon.
And then the Democrats will take us straight into a serious war, just as Wilson (WWI), FDR (WWII) and JFK (Vietnam) did. They may not mean for it to happen, but history will overwhelm them, and Kerry's "no retreat, no surrender" will force his hand. Bummer.
