January 10, 2004
Bush promises the moon.
Reading about Bush's proposal for a bold new American drive to the moon and to Mars. I'm a big fan of space exploration and colonization, which I'm certain will happen during the 21st century in a big way. But this isn't a real plan. It's just an election-year ploy. What Bush proposes will be multi-trillion dollar projects. The money simply isn't there, and we all know it.
Americans will go the stars, but along with the rest of the world, and I have the feeling that it's the Chinese and Russians who will be leading the way, at least for the next few decades. And then some other nations will follow them, who knows who that will be.
I could be wrong, but I really don't see how a nation whose space shuttle fleet is still grounded can accomplish such great goals. From the private sector maybe, but not through the federal government. And even privately only in cooperation with other nations.
One of the great differences of the America of today from the America of JFK that went to the moon is the educational system. When Sputnik was launched in 1957 Americans realized it needed to keep its technological edge, and responded by pumping tons of money into its school systems, promoting the heck out of the study of mathematics and sciences of all types. It was all the rage then, and continued through the 1960s. But now its cutting funding for schools, not expanding them.
Another great difference, and probably the reason that the US was more successful than the Russians, at least in getting to the moon, was that the US was much more open. Information flowed freely, government agencies shared their research with the private sector, and vice versa. When mistakes were made the press freely reported them, and they were corrected. Unlike the USSR where mistakes were hushed over, and problems left to fester.
But now the trend in the US is to control the flow of information. Technology is classified, and hidden. And every day more so. Copyright laws make it very difficult to access other people's research. Corporations reserve their patents for themselves instead of sharing them. Libraries are monitored to make sure "dangerous" people aren't studying technologies which might be used to engage in so-called "terrorism." University research is focused on the short-term goal of producing products for corporations to sell, rather than on the long-term ones of studying science for knowledge sake. And worst of all, lawyers, accountants and politicians direct the programs, not the scientists and dreamers who know what they're doing. Witness what happend to the space shuttle Columbia. The scientists and engineers involved knew that there were problems. But the politicians in charge had to hide them in order to protect their butts.
No, this isn't a nation that is going to the stars. At least not under the likes of George Bush. The Mars rover is very impressive, and the pictures are fascinating. But it hasn't been paid for. The international space station has lost international support because nobody trusts the Americans who insist on doing everything their way and calling all of the shots. And the space shuttle fleet that was supposed to transport people and supplies there is grounded. At the moment the station is leaking air. Because the politicians running NASA chose to focus on all-American projects such as the Mars expeditions, rather than the more boring and mundane tasks of getting a basic station established. And wanted to pretend that they had unlimited money for all sorts of grandiose projects rather than accepting the limits of America's resources and finances and making some hard choices. It's too bad, because having a base in the international space station from which other expeditions could be launched or at least supported could have provided an essential first step in true space colonization.
The pictures of Mars are beautiful though. But I look at them though, and pray that Americans aren't able to get control of it all and fill up that empty landscape with fast-food franchises.
We lost a lot of true stars during 2003.
Long-time critic and reviewer of American culture Rex Reed pens an elegaic farewell to the many great cultural figures who passed away during 2003,
Final Farwell to Friends and Icons, in the
New York Observer. Very nicely done. He's right, there sure were a lot of them, some that are household names, some that you hardly ever heard of. An excellent slice of Americana.
Frank Sinatra used to say, "Growing old can kiss my ass." Nobody ever said it cruder or better. Just take a look at the long and sobering list of celebrity farewells who matured and signed off in 2003, and you know whoever called them the "golden years" must have been auditioning for a straitjacket. Now 2004 is here—but before we can properly usher in that new kid with his year to grow, could we just pause, join hands and share a moment of silent reverence for the folks we lost in the lousy old year just ending?
He really feels 2003 was a rotten year. I had a pretty hard year myself, but I still don't think it was that bad. I think America's just getting old, and like many old people in their final years, prefers to look back on its youth as the "golden years", and claim that "things just aren't what they used to be." The end of America is really the best thing to happen to the world in a long time, in a very, very, very long time. It's senility in its old age is hard to bear, and painful to all those who loved it, but that's nothing new. That's not the fault of the young. America had a grand run, but everything passes, everything changes, and I'm sure that what replaces it will be a thousand times better.
I'm glad though that he takes a moment to remember what was, and to give credit where credit was due. Bob Hope may have stopped laughing finally, but I still smile when I think of him. And always will.
NY Times says war and economy no longer major election issues.
In an article on the
election campaign in Iowa the NY Times makes the extraordinary statement that the war in Iraq and the economy are no longer significant issues. Which is certainly news to me, and certainly not what my reading of the mood of the American electorate indicates.
The Iowa caucus contest is ending in an electoral environment quite different from what Democrats expected when planning for this moment a year ago. At the time, the nation was embroiled in a debate over whether to go to war, and the economy was in a downturn.
But by a number of measures, the economy appears to be recovering, and it is certainly less of an issue than Democrats had hoped it might be now. In a poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers conducted by The Chicago Tribune and The Los Angeles Times and released on Saturday, a third said the economy is now doing well.
And with Saddam Hussein captured, the subject of the war, which more than anything else has framed this contest, accounting for Dr. Dean's rise and the difficulties of Mr. Gephardt and Mr. Kerry, appears to be commanding less attention. Thus, the candidates and their aides were more likely to be focusing on tactics and strategy than, say, the problems facing the next occupant of the White House.
I can't believe that they say the economy is not an issue. And that they claim that the rising stock market means it is no longer in a "downturn." Notice how they work the spin. "A third said the economy is now doing well." Which means that two-thirds think that it is still doing badly. Last time I looked a two-thirds majority was more than enough to win an election. And given a jobs report just this week that said only 1,000 jobs were created, and during the holiday shopping season, when the economists had predicted 150,000, I would say that there's still plenty of pain out there.
But even more amazing is the claim that since Saddam was captured the war is no longer of concern to Americans. With several major attacks just this week, including the near downing of a major transport plane, I'd have to say that the war is still going strong. And I'm sure that the Iowans whose sons and daughters are over there are still concerned.
They keep repeating that Dean's rise is due mostly to his "opposition" to the war, which I would say is a bit of an over-exaggeration. But they like to frame things in single issue context, which makes spinning them easier, and so Dean is oversimplified as an "antiwar" candidate. But it's much more complicated than that. But they want to paint him as a "McGovern", and ascribe his support among younger voters as a replay of the sixties. Again, it's easier to oversimplify. Personally I think most of them are more concerned about the devastating effects of the rising deficits, which their generation will have to pay off. Not to mention many other things, such as health care.
They're just terrified of Dean. Could it be that his comments suggesting that he may pursue anti-trust action against the large media conglomerates, including
considering breaking the biggest ones up, have something to do with that?
Personally, I think this obsession with New Hampshire and Iowa is quite obsolete, a throwback to presidential politics of a century ago. I don't think that either state is that significant, or that the outcome of their elections is anywhere as important as it used to be. Things have changed. If they didn't happen to be first, I don't think they'd hardly be mentioned at all. It just shows how out of touch American politics has gotten with the realities of 21st century America.
And as someone who lives on the west coast, I'm getting awfully tired of people in small states in the eastern part of the country getting to choose the president. Awfully tired. I don't get the impression that people who live in Oregon are going to have any say in choosing the Democrat nominee at all.
O'Neill also says Iraq planning began long before 9/11.
The Guardian also reports, in
another article that O'Neill claims that planning for the invasion of Iraq began immediately after Bush took office, and that it continued plans begun under the Clinton administration.
Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill contends the United States began laying the groundwork for an invasion of Iraq just days after President Bush took office in January 2001 - more than two years before the start of the U.S.-led war that ousted Saddam Hussein.
``From the very beginning, there was a conviction that Saddam Hussein was a bad person and that he needed to go,'' O'Neill told CBS's ``60 Minutes'' in an interview to be aired Sunday night.
The official American government stance on Iraq, dating to the Clinton administration, was that the United States sought to oust Saddam.
But O'Neill, who was fired by Bush in December 2002, said he had qualms about he asserted was the pre-emptive nature of the war planning.
``For me, the notion of pre-emption, that the U.S. has the unilateral right to do whatever we decide to do, is a really huge leap,'' according to an excerpt of the interview that CBS released Saturday.
The administration has not found evidence that the Iraqi leader was involved in the Sept. 11 attacks but officials have said they had to consider the possibility that Saddam could have undertaken an even larger scale-strike against the United States.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan would not confirm or deny that the White House began Iraq war planning early in Bush's term. But, he said, Saddam ``was a threat to peace and stability before September 11th, and even more of a threat after September 11.''
O'Neill says Bush won't discuss economics with others.
The Guardian
reports that former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has said that President Bush won't even discuss the economy with treasury officials and other economic advisors.
A former senior economic adviser to George Bush has made an astonishing attack on the president, saying that he was so disengaged in cabinet meetings that he "was like a blind man in a roomful of deaf people".
Paul O'Neill, who was Mr Bush's treasury secretary, makes his comments in an interview with the CBS show 60 Minutes.
The programme will be broadcast tomorrow.
It is his first interview since Mr Bush sacked him a little over a year ago.
Mr O'Neill sheds light on the president's decision-making process, suggesting that there was an almost total absence of dialogue with his advisers.
The president, he says, encouraged neither the free flow of ideas nor open debate.
"There is no discernible connection," he tells CBS.
Mr Bush's lack of engagement left advisers with "little more than hunches about what the president might think".
Mr O'Neill recalls his own first personal meeting with Mr Bush, during which the president failed to ask him a single question.
"I went in with a long list of things to talk about and, I thought, to engage him on. I was surprised it turned out to be me talking and the president just listening. It was mostly a monologue."
As has been said before, the majority isn't silent, the government is deaf.
January 09, 2004
Hope dies last.
In These Times offers up a page of selections from Studs Terkel latest book,
Hope Dies last, which is a collection of interviews with activists of all ages and walks of life. Prefaced with some comments by Studs himself.
Hope has never trickled down. It has always sprung up. That’s what Jessie de la Cruz meant when she said, “I feel there’s gonna be a change, but we’re the ones gonna do it, not the government. With us, there’s a saying, ‘La esperanza muere ultima. Hope dies last.’ You can’t lose hope. If you lose hope, you lose everything.”
Hope appears to be an American attribute that has vanished for many, no matter what their class or condition of life. The official word has never been more arrogantly imposed. Passivity, in the face of such a bold, unabashed show of power from above, appears to be the order of the day. But it ain’t necessarily so.
...
Here is where the activists enter the picture. In the following pages are portraits of the inheritors of the legacy of those past. Activists have always battled the odds. It’s like a legion of Davids, with all sorts of slingshots. It’s not one slingshot that will do it. Nor will it happen at once. It’s a long haul.
Some inspiring selections are included. I love Studs' work, I think he's one of the best American historians ever. Because he lets people tell their own history, usually without comment. Which is the way it should be. Here's one excerpt.
Frances Moore Lappe, author and activist, is the author most recently of Hope’s Edge: A New Diet for a Small Planet.
(J.P. Tarcher, 2002).
I came across a woman named Wangari Masai. Growing up in a small Kenyan village, she ended up becoming highly educated, the first female Ph.D. in biological sciences in East Africa. She became acutely aware of the encroaching desert. On Earth Day in 1977, she planted seven trees. Then she began to realize that it would take millions of villagers planting trees all over the country to begin to reverse the ecological decline. So she went to government foresters and said, “There have to be millions of people planting trees.” They said, “No, no, it takes foresters to plant trees.” That did not deter her. She started a nursery in her own house, growing little saplings. Her husband thought it made for a very messy house. He ended up divorcing her. That did not deter her. She ended up creating a village-based movement of women. There are now 60,000 of these tree nurseries, run by village women who have planted 20 million trees through Africa.
I became a community organizer with the Welfare Rights Organization in the late ’60s. When I think back, that was my first experience of exactly what Wangari was doing in Africa: helping people see their own capacity not just to be victims, but to have the creative capacity to change their situation. My job was going door-to-door, talking to welfare mothers and drawing them into a group in which they could come up with strategies to change the welfare system. I never thought about this before, but just having someone there, a random young woman—what was I, 23?—listening to them and creating a space for them began to change their sense of possibility.
Life is engagement, life is struggle. That’s what’s rewarding. The Latin root of power is posse, “to be able.” Power just means our capacity to act. I wanted to show people that we all have this capacity to affect the larger world.
Much as I love his work though, I think that maybe he sees things as worse and harder than they are. I guess that's hard to avoid as you get older. But in a way it itself makes things harder. But I don't see that, as he says, "passivity is the order of the day." Not at all. But people see what they want to see. The very phrase "hope dies last" creates the feeling that other things are dying. We create the world we live in by our own perceptions of it. If you believe things are dying, then they will die. But only for you. Not for those who believe differently.
The thing that depresses me the most these days is that I can't get people to even _consider_ the possibility that things might actually be getting better. They've already decided that they're getting worse, and that the subject has been closed forever. I've made a decision to avoid the company of these people, even though it's cost me some old friends and even some family. But I feel much better. Much, much better.
I notice that
Dave Winer says, "My dream of the Web being a place for collaborative development went bust a long time ago." I couldn't disagree more. Maybe he just thought it would happen faster than it did. But it very definitely has, and is, happening. This blog, and the blogging software it uses, and the web itself, are all examples of that. It's way beyond what I could ever do myself, and infinitely more useful than anything I would have imagined could happen when I started working with computers twenty years ago. And it's growing every day. But it's really, really difficult to measure the progress you're making on something while you're working on it. It's only when you step aside, and look back that you see it. That you see how all of the little pieces have added up. But it's there. It's definitely there. You're reading it.
After reading that on Dave's weblog, I noticed this on
caterina.net.
The loser's guide to getting lucky. According to Professor Richard Wiseman "...lucky people are more relaxed and open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for." He says that lucky people generate good luck in four ways: "They are skilled at creating and noticing chance opportunities, make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good."
That's exactly it. Believe good things will happen and they will. And don't listen to the politicians. Listen to the artists. :) All the answers you need are
here, although they're not presented on a silver platter. You have to work for them.
A positive New Year's message.
Found this message from Eolake Stobblehouse, the founder of Domai, and one of the most positive-minded people on the web, that I thought I'd share.
So we are already a couple of days into 2004. How time flies.
I believe this century and this millennium will be times of great spiritual breakthroughs for mankind.
Yes, undeniably, the first few years have been rather scary. But there is a difference between "scary" and "bad". One might be scared for little reason, and the fear can easily mask perceptions of a greater good.
Some forces on Planet Earth see it as their job to make people live in fear. Or maybe they think that they can better do their jobs if people do. I am thinking mainly of governments, and the media.
Governments get handed more money and more power by a frightened population. And the media sell more papers and advertising if the audience is so scared that they dare not look away.
Yet, if one looks carefully, things are very different than we are told. For instance, media are talking much more now about violence and crime, so one naturally gets the impression that they are on the rise. But if you look at the facts, both are actually falling during the past ten years! And so on.
Both myself and many others have for years now had a very strong perception that something very powerfully good is happening. There are many different ideas about what it is. But it seems to have much to do with awareness. If you start looking for it, you will see awareness rising in all kinds of areas, and all the right areas. And awareness is the basis of all progress and all good.
Also imagine if one of those areas is the awareness that we are not really free at all. Wouldn't that be very scary to wake up to? And yet, without that awareness, could you ever become free?
Also, if you are not free, wouldn't there be forces who imprison you? And if you start waking up, wouldn't those forces start panicking, and go to desperate lengths to keep you down?
Yet, one of the universal perceptions about this spiritual "jail break" is that it seems inevitable. Like a sports match with a huge surplus of points and just ten seconds to go, the outcome is technically not decided, but everybody knows what it will be.
We are probably not all the way through the frightening parts yet. It may even get worse for a few years. But remember that whatever you fear, the worse enemy is fear itself. If you remain calm and optimistic, things will go so much easier.
It will all be good.
This is exactly how I feel. I felt on 9/11, and feel today, that it was not the beginning of tragic times, but a powerful, albeit sad, breakthrough to something better. I know many don't understand that, but change is often violent and usually frightening. But almost always good. This site is all about human history, and the more I study it the better I think things are getting. As he says, there is a difference between "scary" and "bad."
One thing I'd add to it is that I think the increased population of the earth is a very "good" thing. A very, very, very good thing. Very few people agree with me on that, and seem quite upset if I suggest it. But I think most of them just don't like people very much, especially those whose skin doesn't happen to be the same shade of color as theirs. They focus on what additional people take away from them, but maybe they should think more about what they add instead. I think people are beautiful, and that the addition of so many more is a blessing, not a curse. Especially considering that so many of them are beautiful women. :)
And I'm not in the least worried about the ability of the planet to support them. For one thing it's biologically impossible for any population to exceed its food supply. Growth in nature simply cannot occur if there aren't the resources to support it. That's Biology 101 and incontrovertible. And where I live, in the western US, there is an absolutely incredible amount of open land, as there is in many other areas on the planet as well. Many areas are in fact experiencing population declines, not expansion. And global warming is opening up enormous expanses in the north even as we speak. The planet adjusts and heals itself accordingly, and I think we all could do the same.
So if you want to insist that the cup is half-empty, go ahead and bum yourself out. But please don't deny the right of others to believe that it's half-full, or even overflowing. Because it is.
LA Times comments on US deficits.
In a new editorial,
Rising Deficit, Rising Fears, the LA Times adds to the growing concern raised by the out-of-control American deficits. [Registration req'd.]
The encroaching tax season may not spoil the holiday cheer of the well-to-do as much as in past years, since Congress has generously speeded up tax cuts on earned income and capital gains for 2003. But can the country afford them when the total national debt has just breached $7 trillion and is on course to increase $5 trillion more in the next 10 years? Increasingly, the answer around the world is "No."
The Congressional Budget Office and nonpartisan groups like the Concord Coalition have long warned of the consequences, to interest rates and investment, of the soaring deficit. The new Cassandra is the International Monetary Fund, warning that the growing trillions of U.S. debt jeopardize global financial stability.
Rest assured that savvy, well-to-do baby boomers aren't going to take the hit. They're already moving their funds out of the country, buying up property here and there, and planning on comfortable retirements while the country that gave them everything goes down the tubes.
Almanacs and the internet.
The FBI recently warned people to be on guard against people carrying almanacs, claiming that these handy reference works could be used to research potential targets and such.
"The FBI is warning police nationwide to be alert for people carrying almanacs, cautioning that the popular reference books covering everything from abbreviations to weather trends could be used for terrorist planning. In a bulletin sent Christmas Eve to about 18,000 police organizations, the FBI said terrorists may use almanacs 'to assist with target selection and pre-operational planning.' It urged officers to watch during searches, traffic stops and other investigations for anyone carrying almanacs, especially if the books are annotated in suspicious ways. 'The practice of researching potential targets is consistent with known methods of al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations that seek to maximize the likelihood of operational success through careful planning,' the FBI wrote." [Via
TomDispatch.]
Many sarcastic comments have been made about this, many pointing out that maybe the finest American who ever lived, Benjamin Franklin, himself published an almanac. But what just occurred to me, is that the internet has effectively made almanacs obsolete. All of the information in them, and infinitely more besides, is easily available over the web. Train and plane schedules, abbreviations (???), weather reports, you name it.
So is the next step to shut down the web, and/or to arrest anyone carrying a PDA or portable computer as a potential terrorist? Are they going to start searching and questioning anyone seen in an airport terminal using a computer? Or writing something in a notebook? And aren't there still internet terminals available to the public in airports?
It's pretty funny actually. But in a way it's also rather frightening, since it seems to imply that the FBI is unaware of the amount of info available on the net, and that they really believe that they can actually prevent people from accessing it. Almost pathetic.
And what about chat rooms, discussion forums and so on? Not to mention good old fashioned telephones and faxes. All of which could easily be used to organize a terrorist plot. And what is a "suspicious way" of annotating an almanac? Using a yellow hilighter? Underlining words? Unbelievable.
Another rather strange policy is that of fingerprinting people arriving at airports and cruise ship terminals. I understand the value of this, which actually could be used to trace people. But they are exempting people from Europe, Canada, Australia and other mostly-white nations. Which is absurd. If they're going to take these measures, then take them and make them effective. But to take them while leaving such glaring and obvious loopholes in them indicates an extraordinary degree of incompetence, and an incredibly unrealistic view of the modern world. There are, for example, millions of Islamic people in Europe.
Dollar has a very bad week.
The
Financial Times reports on the dollar's very bad week. I noted
the other day that it was going down at a rate of a penny a day. But it seems to be picking up. A penny an hour? Wow.
It was business as usual for the increasingly comfortable army of dollar bears this week as, after a pause for profit-taking mid-week, the dollar on Friday resumed its slide to new lows.
Unexpectedly weak job creation in the US weakened the dollar, and
it slumped more than a cent in minutes against the euro to $1.2868 on Friday before recovering some poise to trade ar ound $1.282.
Just 1,000 jobs were created last month, according to the US labour department, compared with economists' expectations of a 150,000 rise. The numbers weakened bond yields and the doll ar fell as investors scaled back their expectations for interest rate rises from the Fed this year.
Read more about the data in the FT. [Also an interesting article.]
It's about to crack the $1.30/euro barrier too, which should have a major psychological effect. It also appears that it would be going down even faster if it were not for massive intervention by the Japanese. But that even that seems to be having only a temporary effect, also apparently lasting only minutes. It would seem that the Japanese are reaching the limits of what they can do, and that like the European Central Bank, will just let it go.
But the Bank of Japan seemed to have other ideas about influencing exchange rates. The dollar traded in an unnaturally tight range around Y106.15 for three days with the market increa singly convinced the Bank of Japan was behind the army of dollar bids at that level.
Foreign exchange participants were equally convinced the bank was behind the concerted wave of yen selling on Friday, which sent the dollar rocketing to Y108.23 from Y106.6 in less th an 10 minutes.
Read more about the BoJ's interventions.
... Strategists were in no doubt Japan intended to continue intervening aggressively.
Derek Halpenny, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, said the closeness of the exchange rate to Y100 was a key factor.
"Last time it broke below Y100 in 1995 the dollar dropped to Y80 in three months and the risk is we get a repetition of that," he said.
"Japanese companies may already be starting to hedge more aggressively with that in mind and the authorities are very eager to avoid a repetition of 1995."
More aggressive hedging will put further pressure on the dollar, and if corporate treasurers lose confidence in the Bank of Japan's ability to hold the dollar-yen rate, they could inc rease the selling pressure by repatriating dollars at these levels instead of hoping for a stronger dollar.
There were signs of hasty selling in the dollar's rapid retreat from its high against the yen. Minutes after peaking at Y108.23, the dollar had slid back to Y107.5 and was at Y106.4 by the close of trade in London.
I said before that I think it will hit the $2/euro level by the end of the year. Now I think it might just do that by the end of summer, if not before. At the current rate it could cross $1.40 just by the end of January. It just seems unavoidable. The renewed attacks in Iraq, a jobs report that only 1,000 jobs were created in the US during December rather than the 150,000 that economists had predicted, which is really bad news given that it was during the holiday shopping season, the fact that the US government clearly thinks that rising stock markets are a reason to avoid making any major economic changes, accelerating American deficits, an election year which makes it impossible for either party to prescribe any harsh medicine, and many other developments all suggest that there is no reason to expect the trend to reverse. On the contrary, they indicate that it will accelerate.
The
Guardian business section has an overview on the reactions of various media around the world to the dollar's change,
Markets wonder where the buck will stop. It would seem that only fairly conservative publications in the US and the UK think it's not that serious. Everyone else predicts more of the same. One side is here.
"If you think the dollar has fallen too fast and too far, think again," warned the Singapore Business Times after the US currency started the year with another slide. In fact, in the Daily Mail Brian O'Connor warned US business leaders that the falling dollar "could become an avalanche".
And the other side is here.
The Bush administration was sanguine about the slump, and was backed by Michael R Czinkota in the Washington Times. The dollar's decline, he pointed out, was principally against the yen, the pound and the euro. "Against most other currencies in Asia, Africa or South America, there has been little change." Moreover, "central banks and other reserve institutions still prefer holding two-thirds of their currency reserves in dollars, rather than in yen or euros." Don't worry, he reassured readers, "when it comes right down to it - money is just paper. What really matters is the psychology behind it, the trust, outlook and confidence in the government which has issued the money ... The dollar avalanche predictors should know that there may be ups and downs, but at the end, we'll be on firm territory again."
Newsday, the suburban New York paper, went so far as to welcome the fall, "as long as it remains gentle and not the product of catastrophic forces".
Gotta love that "money is just paper" part. That's absolutely priceless. Does everybody else in DC know that? :) I'll have to keep that in mind when it comes time to pay my taxes. Will they accept toilet paper? And that it's all about "trust, outlook and confidence in the government which has issued the money." Actually, to a certainly degree that'sexactly it. It's not just the dollar that's falling, it's global confidence in the US government. But it's not just perception. The American deficits are very, very real, and growing. And sooner or later the bills come due. And to the folks at Newsday, is a penny a day "gentle?"
And where they say it's only against the yen, pound and euro.
Only?. Aren't these the three most important ones in the world, the currencies that most other countries use as a yardstick? In any case, that's a blatant lie, or at least a very severe distortion of the facts. It's affecting the Australian and Canadian dollars as well, and it's beginning to hit many others as well. The only major nation that seems to be going the other way is, sadly, Mexico.
January 07, 2004
Top Canadian blogs.
Blogs Canada has a page of the
Top Canadian Blogs. There is also a list of the
Top Blogs - January 2004.
In case you were bored, or wanted to avoid discussions of the American election, which is already getting tiresome, and with nearly a whole year to go. Though I suppose even the Canadians are discussing it.
My personal favorite Canadian ones are the Vancouver-based
caterina.net, by a charming woman into art, poetry and such, and the place I found the link to Blogs Canada to begin with,
Wood s Lot, which is maybe the most consistently interesting, mentally stimulating and intellectually challenging site on the web. I always find something good to read there -- always. And you certainly can't say that about most sites, blogs or otherwise. There's a very long list of links there as well. May take a moment or two to load though, since they usually include a number of photos, paintings, lengthy poems and such. But it's worth it.
Iraq definitely had no WMDs.
The Washington Post's Barton Gellman reports, rather definitively, that
Iraq's Arsenal Was Only On Paper. That they had no arsenal of WMDs, and that since the first Gulf War, any intentions to build any never got past the planning stage. Although they did have a few scientists who were working on plans, and probably the desire to rearm, they clearly did not have the facilities or resources necessary to get anywhere with them. It also seems rather clear that both Bush and Blair were fully aware of this.
Of all Iraq's rocket scientists, none drew warier scrutiny abroad than Modher Sadeq-Saba Tamimi.
An engineering PhD known for outsized energy and gifts, Tamimi, 47, designed and built a new short-range missile during Iraq's four-year hiatus from United Nations arms inspections. Inspectors who returned in late 2002, enforcing Security Council limits, ruled that the Al Samoud missile's range was not quite short enough. The U.N. team crushed the missiles, bulldozed them into a pit and entombed the wreckage in concrete. In one of three interviews last month, Tamimi said "it was as if they were killing my sons."
But Tamimi had other brainchildren, and these stayed secret. Concealed at some remove from his Karama Co. factory here were concept drawings and computations for a family of much more capable missiles, designed to share parts and features with the openly declared Al Samoud. The largest was meant to fly six times as far.
"This was hidden during the UNMOVIC visits," Tamimi said, referring to inspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission. Over a leisurely meal of lamb and sweet tea, he sketched diagrams. "It was forbidden for us to reveal this information," he said.
Tamimi's covert work, which he recounted publicly for the first time in five hours of interviews, offers fresh perspective on the question that led the nation to war. Iraq flouted a legal duty to report the designs. The weapons they depicted, however, did not exist. After years of development -- against significant obstacles -- they might have taken form as nine-ton missiles. In March they fit in Tamimi's pocket, on two digital compact discs.
The nine-month record of arms investigators since the fall of Baghdad includes discoveries of other concealed arms research, most of it less advanced. Iraq's former government engaged in abundant deception about its ambitions and, in some cases, early steps to prepare for development or production. Interviews here -- among Iraqi weaponeers and investigators from the U.S. and British governments -- turned up unreported records, facilities or materials that could have been used in unlawful weapons.
But investigators have found no support for the two main fears expressed in London and Washington before the war: that Iraq had a hidden arsenal of old weapons and built advanced programs for new ones. In public statements and unauthorized interviews, investigators said they have discovered no work on former germ-warfare agents such as anthrax bacteria, and no work on a new designer pathogen -- combining pox virus and snake venom -- that led U.S. scientists on a highly classified hunt for several months. The investigators assess that Iraq did not, as charged in London and Washington, resume production of its most lethal nerve agent, VX, or learn to make it last longer in storage. And they have found the former nuclear weapons program, described as a "grave and gathering danger" by President Bush and a "mortal threat" by Vice President Cheney, in much the same shattered state left by U.N. inspectors in the 1990s.
A review of available evidence, including some not known to coalition investigators and some they have not made public, portrays a nonconventional arms establishment that was far less capable than U.S. analysts judged before the war. Leading figures in Iraqi science and industry, supported by observations on the ground, described factories and institutes that were thoroughly beaten down by 12 years of conflict, arms embargo and strangling economic sanctions. The remnants of Iraq's biological, chemical and missile infrastructures were riven by internal strife, bled by schemes for personal gain and handicapped by deceit up and down lines of command. The broad picture emerging from the investigation to date suggests that, whatever its desire, Iraq did not possess the wherewithal to build a forbidden armory on anything like the scale it had before the 1991 Persian Gulf War.
David Kay, who directs the weapons hunt on behalf of the Bush administration, reported no discoveries last year of finished weapons, bulk agents or ready-to-start production lines. Members of his Iraq Survey Group, in unauthorized interviews, said the group holds out little prospect now of such a find. Kay and his spokesman, who report to Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet, declined to be interviewed.
As far as chemical or biological weapons, it appears that any efforts in that direction also effectively ended in 1990-1991.
As the Associated Press first reported, a scientific assessment panel known as Team Pox returned home in late July without finding reason to believe Iraq possessed the variola virus, which causes smallpox. Even so, interviews with Iraqi scientists led to a redoubled search for work on animal poxes, harmless to humans but potentially useful as substitutes for smallpox in weapons research.
Rihab Taha, the British-educated biologist known in the west as Dr. Germ, has generally been described by U.S. officials as uncooperative in custody since May 12. But according to one well-informed account of her debriefing, she acknowledged receiving an order from superiors in 1990 to develop a biological weapon based on a virus. That same year, a virologist who worked for her, Hazem Ali, commenced research on camelpox.
If truthful and correctly recounted, Taha's statement exposed a long-standing lie. Iraq's government denied offensive viral research. One analyst familiar with the debriefing report, declining to be identified by name or nationality, said investigators believe that Taha's remarks demonstrate an intent to use smallpox, since camelpox resembles no other human pathogen.
"Hearing that from the lips of the people involved is kind of like that MasterCard commercial: 'Priceless,' " the analyst said.
There is no corresponding record, however, that Iraq had the capability or made the effort to carry out such an intent.
Taha, according to the same debriefing account, said Iraq had no access to smallpox. Ali's research halted after 45 days, with the August 1990 outbreak of war in Kuwait, and did not resume. And Taha, like all those in custody, continues to assert that biowar programs ceased entirely the following year.
It's a long and detailed article, which pretty much summarizes what is now known about the degree and extent of Iraqi efforts in this area since 1990. Definitely worth a reading, and worth publicizing given the continuing number of Americans who apparently still believe that they did have WMDs.
And as long as we're on the subject, it should also be pointed out that both the Americans and the British have had, and continue to have, extensive programs to both develop and deploy nuclear, chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, and that at the moment these efforts are not only not being shut down but are being expanded. And that both governments have announced policies that would allow these to be used against civilian populations should their leaders decide it is necessary, or even just politically desirable. And that these programs are, in turn, leading other nations, such as Russia, India and China, to almost certainly expand their own programs, if only as deterrents to future Anglo-American aggression.
IMF projects potential $47 trillion US shortfall.
A new IMF study, reported in the NY Times, suggests that
US deficits threaten the stability of the entire world economy. It's a story that's getting told more and more, especially as the deficits get worse and worse, but for the IMF to state it so bluntly is especially worrisome. And rather surprising given the influence Americans have in the organization. They also project a potential shortfall of a whopping $47 trillion over the next few decades.
With its rising budget deficit and ballooning trade imbalance, the United States is running up a foreign debt of such record-breaking proportions that it threatens the financial stability of the global economy, according to a report made public today bythe International Monetary Fund.
In nearly 60 pages of carefully worded analysis, the report sounded a loud alarm about the shaky fiscal foundation of the United States, questioning the wisdom of the Bush administration's tax cuts and warning that large budget deficits posed "significant risks" not just for the United States but for the rest of the world.
The report warned that the net financial obligations of the United States to the rest of the world could equal 40 percent of its total economy within a few years — "an unprecedented level of external debt for a large industrial country" that it said could play havoc with the value of the dollar and international exchange rates.
But even this is not enough to get the attention of Bush and company. Somehow I don't think that they're the ones that are going to lack food and health care.
Administration officials have made it clear they are not worried about the the United States' burgeoning external debt or the declining value of the dollar, which has lost nearly one-fifth of its value against the euro in 18 months and which hit new lows earlier this week.
Though the International Monetary Fund has repeatedly criticized the United States on its budget and trade deficits in the last few years, this report was unusually lengthy and pointed.
Fund officials said the new report reflected the views of the authors and not the institution as a whole, whose largest shareholder is in fact the United States. But fund officials also seemed intent on getting American attention.
"It's encouraging that these are issues at play in the presidential campaign now under way," said Charles Collins, deputy director of the I.M.F.'s Western Hemisphere Department and a principle author of the report. "We're trying to contribute to persuading public opinion that this is an important issue that has to be dealt with."
Especially note this statement about the size of the projected shortfalls. $47
trillion. (Yes, that's trillion, not billion.) Wow. And five times the entire American GDP. That's an almost inconceivable amount of money.
Fund officials warned that the long-term fiscal outlook was far grimmer, predicting that underfinancing of Social Security and Medicare would lead to shortages as high as $47 trillion over the next several decades, or nearly 500 percent of the current gross domestic product in the coming decades.
As someone who is 51, I have to assume at this point that all of the money I've deposited in Social Security is pretty much gone, or devalued to the point of irrelevance, and that I'm going to have to do some awfully fancy financial finagling in the next decade if I want to avoid ending up on the streets in my old age. Damn, damn, damn. Oh well, it's only money. It's only life. It's only ... catastrophic.
But from now on it's cash only, and I think it might be wise to avoid American banks as well. For the first time I see the possibility of large numbers of American banks going under, or at least having their funds confiscated by the government one way or another. The devaluing of the dollar to finance the deficit is actually a variation on that. I know that there's FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance), which is supposed to back the banks in the event of a collapse, but that's only on paper, and that isn't any good if there isn't any actual cash to cough up.
The long deep slide of America.
Came upon this excellent site,
The Black Commentator, via the always interesting
Wood s Lot. The link was to this article,
Black America Must Prepare For the Long Deep Slide, which I think is a rather accurate analysis of the impact of the new American imperialism on us all. (Not just Black America, but all of us.) The scenario he outlines is not a pretty picture, and I have to agree with his conclusion that it means that America is in for a period of serious decline.
It is at this point that the Dream Period ended, definitively, for Black America. There will be no return in the foreseeable future to the times of robust and general domestic growth. Instead, the era of American decline is well underway, and is likely to be punctuated by abrupt, dramatic, and extremely dangerous social dislocations, during which we will learn the fuller meaning of living “in the belly of the beast.”
... Much more ominous are the clear signals that global elites are quietly drawing red lines around the United States. These are the people who convene and attend the innumerable meetings on countless trade and finance issues that keep a wired planet in some semblance of stability. A general consensus has been reached that the U.S. is the primary source of global instability.
The world’s elites are seeking to position their institutions and nations as far from the American axis as is feasible, while carefully avoiding economic catastrophe in the process. It is like planning a divorce from an insane, violent spouse who also has a key to the safety deposit box. The divorce will unfold in stages – or, under further provocation from the U.S., in earth-shaking spasms. But there is now no doubt that the U.S. is fated to shrink as the world withdraws from successive layers of entanglements with the madman. Black America must therefore prepare to marshal its collective assets for a long period of retrenchment.
And they agree with me that the decline in the dollar is no minor adjustment, but represents a profound and historical decline in America itself. And that soon the world oil prices will use the Euro as the standard, led by Russia, which now has the world's largest reserves of it, and which does most of its business with Europe, not America.
The American currency stranglehold, no longer based on economic but on military might, allows Washington to print megatons of currency to paper over an annual half-trillion dollar trade deficit. However, the artificiality of the dollar’s dominance makes the U.S. vulnerable to the political will of foreign governments and elites, most of which would welcome a way out of the dollar trap, if one could be found.
In the wake of the Iraq invasion, these elites are actively exploring strategies to expel the dollar from its central, dangerously destabilizing position in the world economy. The euro fits the bill, as we wrote on April 17.
... International redlining is, like its domestic counterpart, a force of silent destruction, a negative phenomenon consisting of agreements not entered into, investments not made. It’s chickens not coming home, but going to roost elsewhere. The redlining of America is evident in the behavior of foreign investors, who are choosing to place their money elsewhere despite high rates of return in the U.S. Hussain Khan interpreted the data in the November 22 Asia Times piece, “Impact of Declining US Capital Inflows.”
“What if all the funds parked in the U.S. are pulled out? What if this flow of capital dries up?” asked The Hindu writer in his April commentary. “The effect on the U.S. economy would be cataclysmic since the amounts involved are huge. Robert Brenner, [a] U.S. economist, estimated that in end 2000, foreign ownership of the U.S.' gross assets were equivalent to as much as 67 per cent of GDP and argued that ‘any serious attempt to flee these assets would put enormous pressure on the dollar.’”
No one wants an apocalyptic crash of the World Order that is currently so enmeshed with the dollar. But it is Bush’s Pirates who represent the greatest threat to the system as it now exists. And who can say that in the next year or during a second term in the White House Bush will not unleash another horror on humanity that provokes just such a disaster for the U.S. and the world? This is the nightmare that haunts the foreign elites on whom the U.S. economy depends.
... For true catastrophic drama, one must ponder the effects of an OPEC switch to the euro. Russia, the world’s second largest energy producer, will almost certainly ease its way into euro-denominated oil and gas transactions in the relatively near future. As we wrote in our Cover Story, “The Global Redlining of America,” October 16, “A switch to the euro ‘is really possible,’ according to Russian economist and Putin advisor Yevgeny Gavrilenkov. ‘Why not? More than half of Russia's oil trade is with Europe. But there will be great opposition to this from the United States.’”
Middle East OPEC members also do a lot more business with Europe than with the United States, yet they fear the unknown. After considering discussions on the prospects of switching to the euro or a “market basket” of currencies for oil sales, cartel President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar announced on December 12, "I don't think we will discuss it. I don't think it is the right time to discuss it because we believe it is not easy to switch from currency to currency. Yes, I am concerned about the weaker dollar but we believe we should be pragmatic, that we cannot switch because it is very complicated."
Anyway, a very long and interesting analysis. I probably quote too much of it, but they make many salient points which I think are worth repeating.
The only part that I would disagree with is that I don't think the impact on Americans will be limited to African-Americans, although I guess that people of color, as always, will be quite devastated. But I think it will apply to all poor and working Americans, and could in fact cause the elimination of the middle class, at least as we have come to know it. And I think the crunch will come sooner or later, especially if Bush decides to invade another country, as it appears he may very well do. And I don't hear anything from the Democrats that indicates that they are prepared to take any serious measures to deal with it. Whether it's Dean or Clark.
January 06, 2004
A reminder from Bob Dylan.
Got an email from the Dean campaign saying that the election is "on." I guess they're right, time to stop talking and start doing. I think a good place to start, especially for the so-called progressives, would be by considering these words of Dylan's.
Democracy don't rule the world,
You'd better get that in your head.
This world is ruled by violence
But I guess that's better left unsaid.
Union Sundown
I'm not saying I don't believe in democracy. I do. Just not that voting is the end and be all of existence, or that it is the answer to every problem in the world. Sheriff Dean ain't going to ride into Dodge and clean up town. If you think he will you've been watching too much TV, or listening to NPR. The problems are much, much deeper than that, and they are not going to be solved by making marks on a piece of paper. That's superstition, not democracy. Participate in the election if you want, but don't fool yourself into thinking that voting is all it's going to take. Otherwise, even if the Democrats win, the Bushes and their friends will come back again, just like they did after eight years of Clinton. And they'll come back stronger than ever, just like they did this time. I think we ought to solve this problem once and for all, or at least start thinking about ways to do so. But I guess I'm just a voice in the wilderness on this one. I don't think I'm alone though. At least ol' Bob agrees with me. :)
China studies yuan peg changes.
The
Asia Times, in an article on the recent currency changes,
Dollar slide to push Euro to new heights, reports that on Monday Chinese officials indicated that they may move sooner than later to change the way the yuan is valued on global markets, moving from tying it to the US dollar to tying it to a basket of international currencies. Which, in the long run, would be the best thing for a stable global economy.
China is studying the possibility of linking the exchange rate for its currency to a group of 10 foreign currencies, dropping its politically volatile direct tie to the US dollar, a government newspaper said on Monday. Switching to a group of currencies instead of a direct dollar tie would reflect China's fast-growing importance in the global market and reduce the influence of the US currency on exchange rates. Chinese officials are reportedly also considering steps to ease restrictions that keep money from flowing out of their economy, reducing pressure to raise the value of the yuan.
... China's central bank has adjusted its description of its policy on the exchange rate, a move that may hint at plans to allow greater movement against the US dollar. The quarterly meeting of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy committee reaffirmed its commitment to "maintain the basic stability of the renminbi [yuan] exchange rate". However, the committee added that currency stability should involve a "reasonable and proportionate level" - a caveat not included in its previous quarterly statement.
I find the
Asia Times to be an excellent source of objective reporting on world affairs. Perspectives you simply don't find in the American and European press.
Wonderful story of a woman activist.
I'm a big history buff, and no aspect of history interests me more than the biographies of individual people. People talk about great historical movements and such. But when it comes down to it there really aren't any great movements, just the actions of thousands and millions of ordinary people attempting to deal with the day-to-day realities of the world around them.
But you don't often appreciate someone's life until they're gone, and you can look back and see what they've accomplished. A wonderful case in point is this Scottish activist,
Dame Sheila McKechnie, who spent her life as an advocate of consumer rights, of the homeless, as a feminist, as a member of the House of Commons, and many other things. I found out about her on the
Scotsman's obituary pages. A strange place to browse I know, but you can read about the lives of an extraordinary cross-section of humanity, and gain some perspective on the amazing things some people are able to do with their lives.
Anyway, if you're an activist and perhaps somewhat discouraged, you might give it a read. People do spend their lives fighting for various causes, and in the end accomplishing quite a bit more than you might think is possible. Like I say, you don't see what they've done until it's over. And it's nice when they're recognized. Too bad it's usually not until they're dead.
SHE was fiery, feisty and abrasive. But Sheila McKechnie is remembered by those who worked with her and her many friends as a charmer and exceptionally kind and considerate. Certainly, many people - from the homeless to consumers large and small - have much to thank her for. She was a tireless advocate of upholding what was right and she rebelled against bureaucracy and the political and corporate establishment with relish. She was a born campaigner and, with her alert and well-organised mind, she marshalled an argument with a brisk commitment. McKechnie, for sure, never lacked passion or zeal.
... Dubbed "Super-complainer" by the tabloids (a title that she greatly enjoyed), she raised public awareness of food safety, inadequacies in the NHS and utility companies, inaccurate advertising and misleading information from mortgage companies. She also had a go at the farming industry and denounced the Common Agricultural Policy. But she reserved many of her most poisoned arrows for the financial institutions, which she referred to as "the Wild West".
McKechnie was diagnosed with cancer in 1997 but maintained her heavy workload almost to the end; it was typical of her courage and pluckiness. She served on the court of the Bank of England and was president of the European Consumers’ Association. She was appointed an OBE in 1995 and made a Dame in 2001.
In Britain they acknowledge such people by knighting them. (For Americans who don't know, a "Dame" is the female equivalent of "Sir"). In America, of course, they're lucky if they don't end up on the streets.
Halliburton off 'overcharging' hook.
BBC News reports that Halliburton has been cleared of charges that it overcharged for fuel deliveries to Iraq.
A senior US army officer has cleared the American engineering company Halliburton of any wrongdoing in relation to a contract to deliver fuel from Kuwait to Iraq, according to a newspaper report.
The Wall Street Journal says that the commander of the Army Corps of Engineers, Lieutenant General Robert Flowers, has exonerated the company's subsidiary Kellogg Brown & Root after Defense Department officials complained that the government had been overcharged by $100m.
The newspaper reports that more junior officers told General Flowers that the company had provided data to show that fuel was delivered at a fair and reasonable price.
Political interest in the US in the allegations of overcharging was heightened by the fact that Halliburton used to be run by the Vice President, Richard Cheney.
Well, I'm sure it was a thorough and honest investigation. And it's good to know that the army is on the ball, and that there isn't any illegal and immoral war profiteering going on over there. God bless America.
Osama calls for continuing jihad.
The
Guardian reprints edited selections of Osama bin Laden's latest call for continuing jihad against the west, entitled
Resist the New Rome. I think this guy is crazy, but I link to it and reprint part of it, because I think it's important for people to know who and what they're dealing with.
My message is to urge jihad to repulse the grand plots hatched against our nation, such as the occupation of Baghdad, under the guise of the search for weapons of mass destruction, and the fierce attempt to destroy the jihad in beloved Palestine by employing the trick of the road map and the Geneva peace initiative.
The Americans' intentions have also become clear in statements about the need to change the beliefs and morals of Muslims to become more tolerant, as they put it.
In truth, this is a religious-economic war. The occupation of Iraq is a link in the Zionist-crusader chain of evil. Then comes the full occupation of the rest of the Gulf states to set the stage for controlling and dominating the whole world.
For the big powers believe that the Gulf and the Gulf states are the key to global control due to the presence of the largest oil reserves there. The situation is serious and the misfortune momentous.
The west's occupation of our countries is old, but takes new forms. The struggle between us and them began centuries ago, and will continue. There can be no dialogue with occupiers except through arms. Throughout the past century, Islamic countries have not been liberated from occupation except through jihad. But, under the pretext of fighting terrorism, the west today is doing its utmost to besmirch this jihad, supported by hypocrites.
Jihad is the path, so seek it. If we seek to deter them with any means other than Islam, we would be like our forefathers, the Ghassanids [Arab tribes living under the Byzantine empire]. Their leaders' concern was to be appointed kings and officers for the Romans in order to safeguard the interests of the Romans by killing their brothers, the peninsula's Arabs.
Such is the case of the new Ghassanids, the Arab rulers. Muslims, if you do not punish them for their sins in Jerusalem and Iraq, they will defeat you. They will also rob you of the land of the two holy places [Saudi Arabia].
He goes on to say that he think Riyadh will be next after Baghdad, so I guess that means we can expect more violence in Saudi Arabia. The rantings of a madman as far as I can see, but one with apparently a lot of supporters, so he has to be taken seriously.
The Guardian also has a special section,
The Bin Laden tapes in full, which lists all of the various tapes and announcements he's made during the last few years.
Addendum: See the
editorial/comment by Guardian's readers' editor, Ian Mayes, on the discussion of whether or not it was appropriate for them to print this, especially to print it on the comments pages rather than as a news item. Also please note that they printed an edited transcript of his pronouncement. Not the entire thing.
Readers of the Guardian appear to have accepted the decisions both to carry the extract and to run it on the comment pages. As I write (midday Thursday), no reader has been in touch with me to register any objection to it, either its presence or position in the paper. Most of the dozen or so who wrote letters to the editor, four of which were published the following day, confined themselves to sardonic comments welcoming Bin Laden to the ranks of Guardian columnists, with one or two noting how well he fitted in.
There was, however, a vigorous discussion inside the paper, at the editor's morning conference on the day of publication, with several people speaking strongly against the decision to carry the extract on the comment pages.
I did not attend the editor's conference. However, the debate seemed to me one worth continuing. Later that day I sent to all Guardian journalists and editorial support staff an email inviting replies to these questions: "1 Was the Guardian right to run the piece? 2 Was it right to run it on a comment page? 3 If you say yes to 2, was it adequately introduced/presented?"
Exactly 150 people had replied by midday on Thursday: 142 thought the paper was right to publish the extract, eight thought the paper was wrong, one calling it "appalling judgment", another saying that to suggest Bin Laden's "ravings" were worthy of note was to demean Muslims; 67 thought it was right to run it on the comment pages, 83 thought it wrong; 39 of those who felt it was all right there thought the way it was presented inadequate; 26 thought it was fine on all counts.
Personally I think they should definitely have printed it, and I'm disappointed that no American paper choose to follow suit. If we're going to plunge the world into global war in order to fight this man and his followers we really should know all we can about what they think.
World resists US orders to put armed marshals on flights.
The
Guardian reports that British pilots are refusing to fly on flights with armed marshals on guard, as the US has recently required on all foreign flights. And that their reluctance is being shared by other European nations, with a potential EU summit on the issue being considered.
The British Association of Airline Pilots (Balpa) has said its members will refuse to fly with armed air marshals on board, believing that an aeroplane should not take off if intelligence suggests it would be dangerous for it to do so.
After a meeting with Mr Darling today it called for a special safety summit to discuss the use of armed guards on planes.
Balpa also wants a European Union summit to discuss the issue because of the growing rift between the US and European countries over the use of armed air marshals to counter the threat of hijacking.
At least four European countries - Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Portugal - have made it clear they will not use sky marshals and some pilots believe armed guards might never be used on UK aircraft either.
This can't be good for the American economy. Along with the measures requiring the fingerprinting of foreign visitors (except Europeans and other whites), it means that it is getting harder and harder for people to come to this country. And if they can't come here, then they won't want to do business here either.
It's not just the Europeans either. Mexico and Brazil are quite upset. And there's an editorial in today's
Sydney Morning Herald, suggesting that the US is
Exporting its security problems.
US military arbitrarily extends reservists terms.
The US military is now stretched so thin that it is now forcing reservists whose terms of duty have expired to continue serving anyway. Despite written commitments which amount to legally-binding contracts. Which amounts to virtual slavery. It also seriously weakens the future military readiness of the US since if people can't be certain that the army will honor the commitments it makes to them when they sign up, then naturally they will be reluctant to sign up.
See this
NY Times article on the subject.
The Army is preparing an order that would require about 7,000 troops now in Iraq, Kuwait and Afghanistan to remain on duty through the end of their deployments this spring, even if they could otherwise leave the service before then, an Army personnel officer said Monday.
Once these troops return to their bases, they may also be required to remain in the service for up to 90 days while they complete their formal separation from the Army, said the personnel officer, Col. Elton R. Manske.
Another order, previously announced, already prevents active-duty and reserve troops rotating into Iraq and Kuwait this year from leaving the Army before serving 12 months on the ground, plus a similar 90-day period after they return.
... The Army, stretched by these deployments, also began a program on Jan. 1 to offer re-enlistment bonuses of up to $10,000 to those serving in Iraq, Kuwait or Afghanistan.
The extra bonuses are very interesting. In effect, this says that there aren't enough Americans who believe that the US is under any real threat, and that the only way they can keep the war machine going is by buying mercenaries. Very sad.
On top of that, there are continuing reports that the army cannot afford to supply reservists with the bullet-proof vests, side-arms and other auxiliary equipment that it gives to regular troops. Apparently the families of some of these soldiers are purchasing these items out of private funds and shipping them over. Unbelievable. $400 billion a year for the military, and they can't afford enough guns. And worse they are sending people into very dangerous situations without the proper equipment.
Also see this
Washington Post article,
Army Stops Many Soldiers From Quitting. And this one from
My Way News, by Robert Burns entitled
Army Trying to Keep Troops From Leaving. [Both via the ever-useful
Cursor.]
Rep. Kucinich calls it an "involuntary draft." He's right. That's exactly what it is.
Dollar continues its penny a day decline.
The
Financial Times reports that the dollar continued its now a penny a day decline today, reaching $1.28/euro, albeit briefly.
The dollar extended its losing streak on Tuesday, reaching new three-year lows against the yen, lifetime lows against the euro and 11-year lows against the pound as traders struggled to find reasons to buy the US currency.
The euro broke above $1.28 for the first time in London afternoon trade, peaking at $1.2812 before easing rapidly to $1.275 in New York as profit-taking set in. But analysts were not fazed.
... Sterling continued its heady rally, reaching $1.8277, its highest since the pound's forced ejection from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. The pound then succumbed to profit-taking and eased to $1.822 in US trade.
... On Tuesday, the Australian dollar reached a new six-year high at US$0.7725. Against the Canadian dollar, the ailing greenback was close to Monday's C$1.2775 10-year low at C$1.2784.
The dollar also sunk to new three-year lows against the yen, dipping to Y105.85 before bouncing back over Y106. It stood at Y106.16 in London trade.
On Monday, the Bank of Japan intervened to stem the yen's rise but only briefly succeeded in pushing the dollar higher before the selling began again. Derek Halpenny, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, said the immediate move back down for the dollar was a dangerous sign.
Given the strength not only in the US stock markets, but markets worldwide, I'm not sure what this means, but there you are. It can't possibly continue to decline at this rate. At a penny a day that would mean $3-4/euro by the end of the year, if not more.
For a more general analysis of this all, including some historical perspective, see this article in the Guardian,
The Best Recovery Money Can Buy, by William Keegan, the Observer's senior economics commentator.
But for the moment George Bush is riding high on an economic revival that everyone knows means trouble via the twin budget and trade deficits in the medium term. As for the fiscal stimulus, more and more commentators are noticing that it is not just tax cuts that are boosting the US economy but vast increases in military - or, in the case of lucrative contracts in Iraq, militarily-induced - spending. That 1950s-style military industrial complex is back.
Yet it was Eisenhower himself who cautioned back in 1953: "Every gun that is made, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed." Happy new year.
It's about time someone acknowledged that the growth in US stocks is due almost entirely to warmongering and war profiteering, along with an easy money policy based on borrowing from future generations. But those are just short-term gains. That is, the rising Dow does not signify increased long-term investment in endeavors that have any long-term payoff, which is what capital markets are supposed to be about. On the contrary, it just represents the sacrifice of America's future fiscal and social health to Bush's reelection prospects. "After us, the deluge."
And yet another Guardian article on the subject,
No end in sight to dollar's descent, in which they lay most of the blame on the American Federal Reserve's policy of rock-bottom interest rate.
I won't quote much of it, but I did note this part.
"The dollar's fall has been orderly so far, but if it breaks through technical support levels at around $1.28, it could easily accelerate," said Nick Parsons, a currency strategist at Commerzbank.
"If it starts to hit the stock or bond markets, the US attitude would turn on a dime," he added.
Mr Bernanke said it was a mistake only to look at the dollar's sharp drop against the euro, adding that the greenback's fall against a broad basket of currencies had been much smaller. The risk of a "dollar crisis" was low, he maintained.
This is noteworthy, because just today it broke through that $1.28 level. And I don't think the risk of a "crisis" is low at all. I think it's already reached crisis levels. But I'm not an economist, so what do I know?
I have to link mostly to British and other foreign reports on this subject, since the American press seems to be studiously avoiding the issue.
January 05, 2004
Republicans and Nazis.
Dave Winer makes a very
succinct comment on
MoveOn's comparison of Bush to Hitler that I have to agree with completely.
People who support Bush apparently don't like the
MoveOn.Org comparison of Bush to Hitler. I haven't seen the ad, but I don't find the idea offensive. It's about time people outside the blogging world started ringing the bells. Wake up. They're taking the Bill of Rights apart. Get your priorities straight. An ad with some imagery you find offensive is nothing compared to what the
Republicans are doing. We live in amazing times. The professional press isn't covering the laws that are passing in Congress and being signed by the President.
I quote him rather than saying the same thing myself since he's better known, and more importantly, he has money and is basically fairly conservative. For some reason, Americans only take you seriously if you have money. I have no idea why, but there you are. :) But what's happening in this country is quite serious, and it's not just "crazed lefties" who are getting frightened.
Where I differ from Dave is that I don't think the Republicans are entirely to blame, or that getting them out of office will substantially change things. I think that's a bit self-serving, as I've said before. I think it's fairly certain that the election this year will be a massive Democratic sweep. But what I'm frightened about is that once the Democrats get in, they will not dismantle the apparatus of the police state, but instead will come up with a kinder, gentler version of the same thing, and just end up institutionalizing it. There's an old saying: "The road to hell is paved with good intentions." And it doesn't matter much whether the contractor hired to pave that road is Haliburton/Bechtel, or some corporation owned by Democratic fat cats. In the long run the results will be virtually the same.
Virtually all of the measures the Republicans have taken against civil rights in the name of the "war on terror" are basically extensions of measures that have been taken for years in the name of the "war on drugs." And I honestly can't recall any prominent Democrats ever objecting when the civil liberties of drug users are violated, or complaining that the media wasn't covering them. And if you don't stand up for others, you can't really expect others to stand up for you.
Still, like he says, people do need to wake up. And soon. Better late than never, I suppose.
Snow, snow, snow.
It's snowing almost everywhere in Oregon tonight, and has been for the last week or so. Which is very unusual for Eugene and the southern Willamette valley. Causing quite a few problems I guess, but most folks seem to be just hunkering down and enjoying it. Had a genuine white Christmas even.
As a southern California boy, it's a bit of a switch for me, but I must say it's awfully beautiful, especially up in the mountains outside Eugene which is where I am. And not that cold either, just down into the 20s so far. There was supposed to be a really cold Arctic front moving down here, but I guess it didn't get much farther than Portland.
Hope it doesn't last too long, if for no other reason than that I need to get off the mountain and get down into the city and do some stuff, and that mountain road could be a bit tricky when it's icy. But in the meantime, the view is great, so "let it snow, let it snow..."
Eugene Register-Guard article,
Valley feels chill of rare snow.
Instead of the gloppy, wet "graupel-type" flakes that usually tumble out of Western Oregon skies, these were delicately filigreed crystals of the kind you probably imagined as a kid, then crafted with scissors and typing paper in hand.
In official snow taxonomy, they're called "stellar crystals," one of 10 types of snowflakes that scientists have so far identified. And it may be years before they reach the Willamette Valley floor again.
"When you see them fall, it's really quite beautiful," Libbrecht said. "You look up at your windshield and see a bunch of little stars."
Increased probability of attacks on the US and UK.
Both British and American authorities have been issuing many warnings over the last month about the possibility of further attacks on their countries by Islamic warriors. The Americans have begun requiring fingerprinting of all visitors to the US (except Europeans and Canadians, who are exempted I guess because they're mostly white people), and requiring armed marshalls on all foreign flights, among other measures. The British have stated that they plan to continue their armed presence in Iraq until at least 2006 and probably for years after that (not surprising since they've been there one way or another for over a century), and also that people can expect years of further delays and problems when travelling.
I hope no one is surprised by this, or deluded themselves into thinking that by attacking Afghanistan and Iraq, or capturing Saddam, would end these troubles, or that the so-called "terrorists" would simply give up and fade away. "Every action has an equal and opposite reaction," and any objective observer would already know that these attacks, however well intentioned or "noble" in purpose, would inevitably result in counter-attacks. It's just life, not anything "evil." But Blair and Bush have opened up a very ugly can of worms, and the repercussions of this will continue for many years, long after they're both out of office. And it won't be them who suffer.
So get ready for more attacks folks, and expect them to continue until the British and Americans withdraw their troops from the rest of the world, and stop pretending that they have some sort of God-given duty or right to be the world's policemen. The rest of the world simply won't go along with this, and anyone who thinks they will is seriously deluded.
2003 Koufax Awards.
The folks at
Wampum are having a competition to choose the
2003 Koufax Awards, what they consider the best "lefty" blogs of the year. I don't really understand what a "lefty" is, or how they can distinguish those from others, unless it's simply Bush-bashing, but it's worth checking out.
One of the categories is for
Best Post of 2003. Their list of nominations, selected by their readers, makes for some interesting reading on a variety of topics.
Their list of nominees for
Best Blog is also probably worth checking out. Heck, here's the complete list of them. I don't agree with a lot of their politics, but I have to agree that they're probably the best of the bunch, and it's convenient to have all of the links together.
The other category is
Best Single Issue Blog.
I really must add at least some of these to my blogroll, although a few of them are already there.
Again, this does not constitute any sort of endorsement of the views expressed on these sites, especially all of the Bush-bashing. I dislike Bush as much as anyone, but corporate America was quite corrupt before he came along, and the Democrats are as much to blame as the Republicans, as far as I can see. Enron, WorldCom, et al, for example, all happened on Clinton-Gore's watch, not Bushes.
And as far as the Democrats being a party of "peace", I can only point out that they were in charge during World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War and peacemonger Carter's dirty little Central American wars. Both parties are warmongers deluxe, and history would suggest that either party will get us into a great big ugly war.
I don't want to be that criticial since I believe their hearts are in the right place, and that they mean well, but they're not seeing the whole picture or dealing with the real problems, which run much, much deeper than the current Republican idiocies.
The word "protest" combines "pro" (to be in favor of something, as in "pro and con"), and "testify" (to stand up for something). Popular mythology notwithstanding, it doesn't mean to be AGAINST something, but to be FOR something. We all know what they're against. But what are they for? Until they figure that out all of the moaning and groaning will accomplish absolutely nothing. In fact it will make it worse since it just lets this corrupt system continue on and on and on. To think that Sheriff Dean will ride into Dodge and clean out the bad guys, and that everything will be fine is utterly ridiculous, to put it mildly. Ain't going to happen. Not this year, not next year, not ever.
January 04, 2004
Breslin on troops occupying NY and the attacks on Dean.
Newsday columnist Jimmy Breslin is unhappy with armed troops invading and occupying his beloved New York City. I wonder why? In this column,
The New American System of Justice, he wonders why this is, and goes on to wonder why Howard Dean is getting so much flack for insisting that the constitution be followed, no matter what. Via
The Smirking Chimp.
"Forward!" I commanded.
"I'm not going there," the cabdriver said. He stopped in the middle of the street, short of Columbus Circle.
Just ahead was a wall of guns, a neon arsenal, around the big new rich hotel, the Mandarin.
In all my time in my city I have never seen this many guns. Not just little guns that you fit in a holster. But great big cannons that were being held by men peering out from under helmets and dressed otherwise for battle.
"They look like they're afraid that someone is going to get killed," I said.
"Me," the cabdriver said.
This was on New Year's Eve, after our 140,000 troops captured Saddam Hussein and made America safe for freedom and liberty and democracy.
And I thought NY was supposed to be free of violent, armed crime these days.
I really like him for supporting Howard Dean's claim that Osama bin Laden should not be declared guilty of any crimes until he has a trial, and for challenging those who think that it's "un-American" to say so.
Howard Dean then said that he was old-fashioned and he didn't think you could judge or punish Osama bin Laden until you had a trial and found him guilty.
Suddenly, politicians and the news industry shouted, What are you talking about innocent until found guilty? How can this man Dean say that bin Laden deserves a trial? They said that this was a perfect illustration of Dean talking without thought. And completely un-American, too.
In 1945, they had the Nuremburg trials for Nazis who had killed tens and tens of millions, and had judges, witnesses, evidence and defense counsels. Just the other week, one of the Democratic candidates, Wesley Clark, testified in the Hague at the trial of Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia.
Yet Joseph Lieberman, who is a peripheral candidate now and thus a nasty little man, said that because he relies on the Constitution, Dean is a weakling who would melt in the face of George Bush.
John Kerry and Dick Gephardt were wildly opposed.
Yet all Dean has to do in this big Des Moines debate today is ask each candidate, "Are you in favor of sentencing bin Laden before you have a trial?"
Let them answer in front of a country that is better than they are.
Indeed. 9/11 was a very great crime, although not nearly as great that many the US has itself committed during the last 100 years, (most especially Vietnam for which there still haven't been any trials, hearings or tribunals, much less punishments), and we need to do everything to find out the truth about it. If Osama was responsible then he should be punished. But without any trial we'll never know what really happened. And I have yet to see any documented "facts" that prove he was involved at all. (Yes, I believe he was, but that's not the same thing as documented proof, as any lawyer will tell you.)
And I still want to know why the Bushes were just so eager to fly the bin Ladens out of the country on 9/11. Why would they do that? And what possible reason could Bush have for blocking the release of reports investigating that day? Why?
I think the Republicans are going to face some really angry New Yorkers when they show up for their convention next summer, not to mention plenty of other angry folks.
Picture of Mars.
There's a wonderful photo of the Martian landscape
here. Absolutely beautiful. Or at least as beautiful as a landscape with no mountains or other landmarks could be. No McDonald's or Pizza Huts yet, but give them time.
Almuajaha - The Iraqi Witness.
Via
A Family in Baghdad blog referenced below is a link to this Iraqi newspaper and web site,
Almuajaha - The Iraqi Witness. Many different links, commentaries, along with an open forum. And in English.
Didn't browse it all that much, but did read
these two essays by a 22-year old Iraqi woman, "Who Is Responsible?" and "A New Kind of Democracy", together with many comments
In our daily lives, are we seeing and reading the truth? We have to dive beneath surface appearances that are presented to us.
When the American and British armies entered Iraq, they called themselves liberators. They said they came to liberate Iraqis from an oppressive, murderous government, and to prevent the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Did these "liberators" cross all the continents to arrive in Iraq simply for the safety of the Iraqi people? Who will cover the costs of these noble volunteers?
And, while we are on the subject – may I ask where exactly is Saddam and his world-threatening weapons today?
I want facts. After 12 years of embargo, preventing anything from entering Iraq without United Nations authorization, no one has found any weapons of mass destruction. After 8 years of weapons inspections, with all their modern techniques, from 1991 to 1998, no one has found any weapons of mass destruction. In these last months of renewed international inspections, and renewed Anglo-American war-making, no one has found any weapons of mass destruction. Can we conclude that the fact is there are no weapons of mass destruction? Or maybe Saddam’s storing them in the White House beneath Bush’s bed?
Saddam Hussein was not Iraq. It doesn’t make sense to punish 24 million people, make them suffer from hunger, illness and death, because of one person and his imaginary weapons. It is illegal and inhumane to murder an entire nation based on suspicions. Who is responsible for all the deaths from the sanctions?
If suspicions were enough to punish Iraq, then when is the very real evidence of Israel’s weapons of mass destruction going to be enough to punish Israel? Justice should be evenly applied. Anything else is the judgment of the strong on the weak. It is the law of the jungle.
The end to both Saddam and the sanctions is a dream that most Iraqis have been eagerly awaiting. Iraq is rich with its fortunes, and rich with a civilization going back thousands of years. We can rebuild our country by ourselves. But now, we have a new Saddam, the Americans. And now, we have a new sanctions regime – the Americans have put their hands on every piece of paper that leads to every, single drop of Iraq’s oil. We still cannot control our own future.
They say they are here to bring back freedom back to Iraqis, but the first hand is the hand of Steve Bremer, Jay Garner, our new rulers, and Phillip Caroll, appointed as the man responsible for Iraqi oil. I’m just wondering, is Phillip Caroll an Iraqi name?
Who is the responsible for these appointments? And who is responsible for the distribution of all the contracts to American companies for "rebuilding" Iraq? Are Iraqis responsible? Or Americans? Or Americans wearing Iraqi clothes (such as Ahmed Chalabi)?
Have to agree with most of it, but can't say I like the part about criticizing Israel, which is rather sad and pathetic. While there is no evidence of WMD's in Iraq, there is indisputable evidence of payments to Palestinian suicide bombers by Saddam, something for which the Iraqis really owe the Israelis an apology. The Israelis didn't start the wars or attack first, the Arabs did. That is an historical fact, and if Israel hadn't developed WMD's as a deterrent (which they've never used), then they would have been attacked even more. And if they hadn't taken out Iran's nuclear power plant years ago, then they would have nuclear weapons by now. The Israelis deserve a lot of credit for whatever peace there has been in the region. Criticize them all you want, you can't change the facts.
But I guess a young woman like this, with so little access to accurate information and without an objective media to report the truth, is only repeating what she's been told over and over again, apparently it's all propaganda designed to divert attention from their own problems. Hopefully some day at least some of the people in these countries will come to their senses about this.
"Who is responsible?" she asks, and rightly so. Certainly the Americans share some of the blame, along with the British who have been interfering in Iraqi affairs for a century or more, and so was Saddam, along with many others. But Saddam could not have stayed in power for that many years without substantial help from many Iraqis. Americans should look to themselves for the reasons that they were attacked on September 11th, and Iraqis should look to themselves for the reasons that they have suffered so much. (And someone should tell the British to look at a map, and explain to them that the British Isles are part of Europe, not part of the Mideast.)
It's so easy to blame others, but so rarely true. But don't mind me; I realize how much easier and more convenient it is to blame others. And it's always others, isn't it? And I guess the Jews are the most convenient scapegoats around, despite the fact that they've never attacked or invaded Iraq, or interfered in their affairs in any way. I'd really like to know of a single instance in which an Israeli has killed an Iraqi. Just one.
"La mer miserable," (the Tigris River).
There's a really nice blog from Iraq,
A Family in Baghdad, with entries from everyone in the family (except Dad who thinks it's all nonsense :)). Very useful insights into daily life there. I was struck by
this entry on the ageless Tigris River. (Actually I think "mer" means "sea", not "river," but why quibble.)
I live in a really nice city, where a dictator governed for 35 years, creating anti-culture walls around the city and making it really locked... A river splits this city into two parts ... And this river was hand-cuffed for all these years... No one was allowed to sit by it or talk to it or even look to it, due to 'security reasons'.
in 9th of Apr. this great Tigris was finally freed, people could talk to the river, and everybody noticed how much the river cried after the war ... But that lasted for only couple of months... Now, the river was hand-cuffed again by people 'he' doesn't know and haven't met before. Once again, the Tigris cant listen to people talking to him or looking at him or sitting by him... Due to 'security reasons'.
poor river.
poor people.
poor city.
poor me.
They also reproduce Willie's Christmas song. I guess a lot of Americans and a lot of Iraqis actually are in agreement on a lot of things.
Willie Nelson writes a Christmas song.
Willie Nelson was inspired to write a new song on Christmas day in which he wonders whatever happend to peace on earth. My sentiments exactly. Good to know not everyone from Texas is crazy. Via
Counterpunch.
There's so many things going on in the world
Babies dying
Mothers crying
How much oil is one human life worth
And what ever happened to peace on earth
We believe everything that they tell us
They're gonna' kill us
So we gotta' kill them first
But I remember a commandment
Thou shall not kill
How much is that soldier's life worth
And whatever happened to peace on earth
(Bridge)
And the bewildered herd is still believing
Everything we've been told from our birth
Hell they won't lie to me
Not on my own damn TV
But how much is a liar's word worth
And whatever happened to peace on earth
So I guess it's just
Do unto others before they do it to you
Let's just kill em' all and let God sort em' out
Is this what God wants us to do
(Repeat Bridge)
And the bewildered herd is still believing
Everything we've been told from our birth
Hell they won't lie to me
Not on my own damn TV
But how much is a liar's word worth
And whatever happened to peace on earth
Now you probably won't hear this on your radio
Probably not on your local TV
But if there's a time, and if you're ever so inclined
You can always hear it from me
How much is one picker's word worth
And whatever happened to peace on earth
But don't confuse caring for weakness
You can't put that label on me
The truth is my weapon of mass protection
And I believe truth sets you free
(Bridge)
And the bewildered herd is still believing
Everything we've been told from our birth
Hell they won't lie to me
Not on my own damn TV
But how much is a liar's word worth
And whatever happened to peace on earth
End of entries. ( ) ( )