Moon and Mars costs don't include ongoing maintenance.

There's been a lot of discussion about Bush's proposal to establish colonies on the moon and Mars. One thing that hasn't been pointed out is that the initial estimates of the costs involved don't include the costs of keeping the bases going once they're established. The initial estimates of the total costs are something like $500 billion, but given the history of overruns in the space program, it will almost certainly end up being in the trillions.

Which itself is an almost inconceivable amount, and even more when you consider that since America is broke, it will have to borrow the money. I shudder to think what the interest charges on a one trillion dollar loan will be.

But this is just the costs of establishing the programs and planting the initial colonies. Once they're there they will have to be maintained, and presumably gradually expanded. That means at least tens or hundreds of billions of dollars a year, if not more. And those costs will never end since the suggestion is for permanent bases. I repeat that: the proposal is for permanent bases that will have to be supported for decades at least. And given Murphy's law ("whatever can go wrong will go wrong") there will almost certainly be enormous unforeseen expenses. If something does go wrong, and it will, we'll have to rescue those folks, no matter what the costs.

These are enormous projects, maybe even the biggest in human history. I'm a big fan of space exploration, and an even bigger fan of colonizing it, but I can see what it will cost. I think eventually it will not only pay for itself, but make a profit. From tourism if nothing else, along with unexpected scientific advances. (I can see the skeptics shaking their heads about that as I write. :)) But in the meantime we're talking potentially many trillions over the next few decades.

If we're going to do this we need to plan very, very carefully, and go very, very slowly. And if at all possible do it on an international basis so that Americans alone don't bear the entire burden. The Chinese are already planning on a permanent base on the moon. I'm sure they don't want to pay all of the costs.

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