December 30, 2003
Others' predictions for 2004.
I always like to predict the future, and am fascinated by articles that attempt to do so. I'll be gathering links to some of these for 2004, so that a year from now I can go back and see what's what, and what wasn't.
Here's
a list from
BBC News.
They predict Bush will get re-elected, which I heartily disagree with. It's hard to call at this point, and none of the Democratic candidates really appeal to me, but my feeling is that this will be a major Democratic landslide, the likes of which haven't been seen since 1932. I could be wrong, we shall see.
Some things they are definitely wrong about though are their assumptions that (1) Bush will outspend the Demos, since there's beginning to be an awful lot of money flowing to Democratic coffers; and (2) that money will be the deciding factor. People always assume this, but a study of presidential elections doesn't support the thesis. Bush didn't win in 2000 because he had more money, but because Gore ran the most incompetent campaign the US has seen in many years, and because of the incredible corruption allowed by him and Clinton. But people always like to use money as an excuse. It's convenient.
Another interesting prediction is that of the first black pope. I doubt that too, but it's an interesting idea.
Here's
Business Week's 2004 Forecasts.
They too predict Bush will win reelection by a narrow plurality. Like I say above it's difficult to call, but I think this reflects a common mistake people make in predicting: they predict what they WANT to happen, rather than what WILL happen. It's very difficult to separate the two, and business analysts are usually the worst at it than anyone.
Curiously, given the importance of the value of the dollar in business and economics, they don't even bother to mention it. Like most American news sources, especially the financial specialists, the policy seems to be if we just ignore it it will go away. But they should pay more attention. The declining dollar means that American assets are increasingly cheap on the international market, and other nations will start to gobble them up. Why wouldn't they? (See this NY Times article,
Weak Dollar Has Put U.S. Assets On Sale.)
But instead of concerning themselves with such minor inconsequentials as the selling-off of America, they reserve two of their ten predictions for the winners of the Super Bowl and the World Series. Very indicative of the level of maturity found in corporate America, I'd say.
There's another set of predictions from BW. In their "Movable Feast" column, Thane Peterson
reviews his predictions for 2003, and makes some for 2004. Curiously it's mostly cultural changes, not business ones, that he discusses. Although he does briefly mention the economy.
Buy American Will Become a Serious Movement Again.
Call me naïve, but I predict that the U.S. trade deficit, which is coming in at around $500 billion this year, will finally become a political issue with ordinary voters. People will start connecting this unsustainable drain with the flight of jobs overseas, outsourcing, and the steady downward pressure on the dollar.
More Americans will start wondering: Can you really have prosperity in an economy that imports nearly all its tangible goods and is almost entirely based on services? In my view, that can work only if international peace, cooperation, and free trade reign -- none of which the Bush Administration or Congress is pushing very hard right now.
I don't see what's "naive" about facing economic realities. And I also don't see what "Buy American" means anymore. Most of Wal-Mart's stuff isn't made in America. If you buy a Chrysler automobile, you're buying German, not American. If you go see "Lord of the Rings" you're buying New Zealand. If you buy a Harry Potter book, you're buying Scotland. You can't hide a trillion dollar debt behind a flag.
But that isn't a new story. Check out the lyrics to Bob Dylan's
Union Sundown, written twenty years ago, in which he outlines how the lack of homegrown products affects things.
Well, you know, lots of people complainin' that there is no work.
I say, "Why you say that for
When nothin' you got is U.S.-made?"
They don't make nothin' here no more,
You know, capitalism is above the law.
It say, "It don't count 'less it sells."
When it costs too much to build it at home
You just build it cheaper someplace else.
Well, it's sundown on the union
And what's made in the U.S.A.
Sure was a good idea
'Til greed got in the way.
