October 16, 2002
Questionable projections of computer sales.
Some interesting predictions about the industry overall in an
article from
CBS Marketwatch on Apple's expectations in coming quarters.
"Research firm IDC recently lowered its PC market growth forecasts through 2003 because of continued weak demand among consumers and business customers. IDC now expects worldwide PC shipments in 2002 to grow by 1.1 percent to nearly 136 million. It predicts growth of 8.4 percent in 2003. That's down from its June forecast of 4.7 percent in 2002 and 11.1 percent in 2003."
Seems to be quite a gap between current and future estimates, based, as far as I can see, on the assumption that there's to be substantial economic recovery shortly. Basically wishful thinking. Certainly the June forecasts were way, way off the mark, less than a quarter of what was predicted only about 100 days ago. I think they'll be lucky to just hold even, much less increase.
Computer sales are not just going to come back: it will require confronting the serious problems facing the industry, most especially Microsoft's and Apple's monopolies. These are very definitely making it impossible for new technology to develop. I, for instance, would be developing an absolutely killer ebook program for Windows, except that Microsoft's giving theirs away for free. How do you compete with that? Is anyone going to invest in that situation.
Say, whatever happened to that Microsoft anti-trust thing? Proceeding along with due speed I suppose. Goodness, this thing is going to outlast both the boom and the recession, and probably Bush as well as Clinton. "Justice delayed is justice denied." Can't people realize that it's this uncertainty and dishonesty that's devastating the tech economy? You can't invest in this atmosphere.
You have to have a set of rules. They can be bad rules, they can be slanted towards the corporations, they can be unfair, but whatever they are they have to enforce them. This is why we pay our taxes, this is what the government is FOR.
